[The analysis of climatic and biological parameters for the pest spread risk modelling of the wood nematode species Bursaphelenchus spp. and Devibursaphelenchus teratospicularis (Rhabditida: Aphelenchoidea)].

Abstract

Based on the forest woody species wilt areassurvey in Nizhniy Novgorod region in August 2014, the possible factors of the pest spread risk modelling were analysed on six species of the genus Bursaphelenchus and Devibursaphelenchus teratospicularis using six parameters: plant host species, beetle vector species, average temperatures in July and January, annual precipitation. It was concluded that these parameters in the evaluated wilt spots correspond to climatic and biological data of the already published woody plants wilt records in Europe and Asia caused by the same nematode pest species. It was speculated that the annual precipitation of 600 mm and average July temperature of 25 degrees C or higher, are the critical combination that may be used to develop the predicative risk modelling in the forests' and parks' wilt monitoring.