[Application of exponential smoothing method in prediction and warning of epidemic mumps].

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the daily data of epidemic Mumps in a province from 2004 to 2008 and set up exponential smoothing model for the prediction.

Methods: To predict and warn the epidemic mumps in 2008 through calculating 7-day moving summation and removing the effect of weekends to the data of daily reported mumps cases during 2005-2008 and exponential summation to the data from 2005 to 2007.

Results: The performance of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing is good. The result of warning sensitivity was 76.92%, specificity was 83.33%, and timely rate was 80%.

Conclusions: It is practicable to use exponential smoothing method to warn against epidemic Mumps.