Demography of peoples of the Russian North in the beginning of XXI century.

Abstract

Against the background of natural decline in population of all Russia, in particular, the Russians, the demographic situation of peoples of the North is at times considered as "moderately optimistic". In this case the growth of their number serves according to last population census, as a decisive factor. Contrary to the above, many researchers in different regions and among different peoples of the North speak about economic decline and growth of unemployment, an impoverishment of indigenous northerners, their high morbidity and death rate and estimate the demographic situation as "catastrophic". The criterion thus becomes the social crisis in northern settlements. Estimating the demographic situation it is necessary to lean on demographic criteria as such. But the dynamics of the number of the North's peoples, i.e. the sole result of the population census reflecting "well-being", is not such a pure demographic criterion. It was, as we have shown, investigating the data of four population censuses of the USSR (1959,1970,1979,1989), determined in many respects not only, and not at all so much by their demographic movement (i.e. birth rate and death rate), but rather by ethnic (assimilation) processes, and sometimes simply by discrepancies in the census work. While in 1959-89 peoples of the North used to be assimilated by other peoples, in 1989-2002 a reverse tendency became pronounced among some of these peoples. Over a quarter of an inter-census growth was due to ethnic assimilation among six peoples (the Khants, Mansis, Itelmens, Selkups, Kets and Saami). The comparison of inter-census living out among peoples of the North demonstrates that the death rate among them is considerably higher, than the very high death rate of the entire population of Russia. The actual demographic parameters provide evidence for obviously unfavorable tendencies. There was a sharp decrease in birth rate (the overall ratio has decreased from 30% during the 5-year period before the 1989 census up to 18% in 1999-2002). Death rate has grown. Though the overall ratio is lower, than for the whole population of Russia, it is explained by the young age structure of peoples of the North (only 6 % are older than 60, and 18 %--are older than 45; in Russia--18% and 37% accordingly). The average life expectancy (a more adequate yardstick to measure mortality) among peoples of the North is more than 10 years less than the average Russian one. It is less, than among other indigenous peoples of the North (in Scandinavia, Alaska, Canada and Greenland). The share of deaths due to external reasons (accidents, poisonings, suicides and homicides) is enormous; among peoples of the Tyumen North it makes 37% of all the deaths, and in Russia as a whole it is 14% (though the Russian figure itself is far too high by international standards). It is exactly the death rate that determines the nature of the demographic situation. No ultrahigh birth rate in the modern world can serve as an indicator of "well-being" (otherwise the demographically safe region would be Africa south of Sahara). Therefore, certainly we have to define the demographic condition of peoples of the North as a crisis. And further decrease in birth rate with such a high death rate can surely lead to their factual depopulation. Numerical smallness makes them most vulnerable in this respect, while in fact the prospect of vanishing worries much more numerous peoples just as well.