The influence of social and economic ties to the spread of COVID-19 in Europe.

IF 1.6 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY
JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-04-05 DOI:10.1007/s12546-021-09257-1
Ryohei Mogi, Jeroen Spijker
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

By late January 2020, the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) had reached Europe and most European countries had registered cases by March 1. However, the spread of the virus has been uneven in both prevalence and speed of propagation. We analyse the association of social, economic, and demographic factors in the initial spread of the coronavirus disease COVID-19 across 23 European countries between March 1 and April 30, 2020. Diagnosed COVID-19 cases from Johns Hopkins University and data from the European Social Survey and other sources were used to estimate bivariate associations between cumulative reported case numbers at ten-day intervals and nine social, demographic, and economic variables. To avoid overfitting, we first reduce these variables to three factors by factor analysis before conducting a multiple regression analysis. We also perform a sensitivity analysis using rates and new cases between two time periods. Results showed that social and economic factors are strongly and positively associated with COVID-19 throughout the studied period, while the association with population density and cultural factors was initially low, but by April, was higher than the earlier mentioned factors. For future influenza-like pandemics, implementing strict movement restrictions from early on will be crucial to curb the spread of such diseases in economically, socially, and culturally vibrant and densely populated countries.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12546-021-09257-1.

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社会和经济联系对 COVID-19 在欧洲传播的影响。
到 2020 年 1 月下旬,2019 年新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)已到达欧洲,大多数欧洲国家在 3 月 1 日之前登记了病例。然而,病毒的传播在流行程度和传播速度上都不均衡。我们分析了 2020 年 3 月 1 日至 4 月 30 日期间冠状病毒病 COVID-19 在欧洲 23 个国家最初传播的社会、经济和人口因素的关联。我们利用约翰霍普金斯大学的 COVID-19 诊断病例以及欧洲社会调查和其他来源的数据,估算了每十天报告的累计病例数与九个社会、人口和经济变量之间的二元关联。为避免过度拟合,我们首先通过因子分析将这些变量减少到三个因子,然后再进行多元回归分析。我们还利用两个时间段之间的比率和新病例进行了敏感性分析。结果显示,在整个研究期间,社会和经济因素与 COVID-19 密切正相关,而与人口密度和文化因素的相关性最初较低,但到了 4 月份,则高于前面提到的因素。对于未来类似流感的大流行,在经济、社会和文化上充满活力且人口稠密的国家,尽早实施严格的流动限制对于遏制此类疾病的传播至关重要:在线版本包含补充材料,可查阅 10.1007/s12546-021-09257-1。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
18
期刊介绍: The Journal of Population Research is a peer-reviewed, international journal which publishes papers on demography and population-related issues. Coverage is not restricted geographically. The Journal publishes substantive empirical analyses, theoretical works, applied research and contributions to methodology. Submissions may take the form of original research papers, perspectives, review articles and shorter technical research notes. Special issues emanating from conferences and other meetings are also considered.
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