Covid-19 transmission modelling of students returning home from university.

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2021-01-17 eCollection Date: 2021-01-01 DOI:10.1080/20476965.2020.1857214

Paul R Harper, Joshua W Moore, Thomas E Woolley

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We provide an open-source model to estimate the number of secondary Covid-19 infections caused by potentially infectious students returning from university to private homes with other occupants. Using a Monte-Carlo method and data derived from UK sources, we predict that an infectious student would, on average, infect 0.94 other household members. Or, as a rule of thumb, each infected student would generate (just less than) one secondary within-household infection. The total number of secondary cases for all returning students is dependent on the virus prevalence within each student population at the time of their departure from campus back home. Although the proposed estimation method is general and robust, the results are sensitive to the input data. We provide Matlab code and a helpful online app (http://bit.ly/Secondary_infections_app) that can be used to estimate numbers of secondary infections based on local parameter values. This can be used worldwide to support policy making.

查看原文本刊更多论文

针对大学毕业返乡学生的 Covid-19 传播模型。

我们提供了一个开源模型，用于估算可能具有传染性的学生从大学回到有其他住户的私人住宅后造成的 Covid-19 二次感染数量。利用蒙特卡洛方法和英国的数据来源，我们预测一名受感染的学生平均会感染 0.94 名其他家庭成员。或者说，根据经验，每个受感染的学生都会产生（略少于）一个家庭内二次感染病例。所有返校学生的二次感染病例总数取决于他们离开校园回家时每个学生群体中的病毒流行率。尽管所提出的估算方法具有通用性和稳健性，但其结果对输入数据非常敏感。我们提供了 Matlab 代码和一个有用的在线应用程序 (http://bit.ly/Secondary_infections_app)，可用于根据本地参数值估算二次感染人数。该方法可在全球范围内用于支持政策制定。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.