{"title":"Dynamics of epidemic diseases without guaranteed immunity.","authors":"Kurt Langfeld","doi":"10.1186/s13362-021-00101-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The pandemic of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) suggests a novel type of disease spread dynamics. We here study the case where infected agents recover and only develop immunity if they are continuously infected for some time <i>τ</i>. For large <i>τ</i>, the disease model is described by a statistical field theory. Hence, the phases of the underlying field theory characterise the disease dynamics: (i) a pandemic phase and (ii) a response regime. The statistical field theory provides an upper bound of the peak rate of infected agents. An effective control strategy needs to aim to keep the disease in the response regime (no 'second' wave). The model is tested at the quantitative level using an idealised disease network. The model excellently describes the epidemic spread of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the city of Wuhan, China. We find that only 30% of the recovered agents have developed immunity.</p>","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7898496/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13362-021-00101-y","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2021/2/22 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The pandemic of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) suggests a novel type of disease spread dynamics. We here study the case where infected agents recover and only develop immunity if they are continuously infected for some time τ. For large τ, the disease model is described by a statistical field theory. Hence, the phases of the underlying field theory characterise the disease dynamics: (i) a pandemic phase and (ii) a response regime. The statistical field theory provides an upper bound of the peak rate of infected agents. An effective control strategy needs to aim to keep the disease in the response regime (no 'second' wave). The model is tested at the quantitative level using an idealised disease network. The model excellently describes the epidemic spread of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the city of Wuhan, China. We find that only 30% of the recovered agents have developed immunity.
期刊介绍：
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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