A dynamic optimal control model for COVID-19 and cholera co-infection in Yemen.

IF 4.1 3区数学 Q1 Mathematics

Advances in Difference Equations Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-02-15 DOI:10.1186/s13662-021-03271-6

Ibrahim M Hezam, Abdelaziz Foul, Adel Alrasheedi

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this work, we propose a new dynamic mathematical model framework governed by a system of differential equations that integrates both COVID-19 and cholera outbreaks. The estimations of the model parameters are based on the outbreaks of COVID-19 and cholera in Yemen from January 1, 2020 to May 30, 2020. Moreover, we present an optimal control model for minimizing both the number of infected people and the cost associated with each control. Four preventive measures are to be taken to control the outbreaks: social distancing, lockdown, the number of tests, and the number of chlorine water tablets (CWTs). Under the current conditions and resources available in Yemen, various policies are simulated to evaluate the optimal policy. The results obtained confirm that the policy of providing resources for the distribution of CWTs, providing sufficient resources for testing with an average social distancing, and quarantining of infected individuals has significant effects on flattening the epidemic curves.

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也门 COVID-19 和霍乱合并感染的动态优化控制模型。

在这项工作中，我们提出了一个新的动态数学模型框架，该框架由一个微分方程系统控制，同时整合了 COVID-19 和霍乱的爆发。模型参数的估算基于 2020 年 1 月 1 日至 2020 年 5 月 30 日 COVID-19 和霍乱在也门的爆发情况。此外，我们还提出了一个优化控制模型，以最大限度地减少感染人数和每次控制的相关成本。为控制疫情，需要采取四种预防措施：社会隔离、封锁、检测次数和氯水片（CWT）数量。根据也门目前的条件和可用资源，对各种政策进行了模拟，以评估最佳政策。结果证实，为分发氯水片提供资源、为检测提供足够的资源并保持平均社会距离以及隔离感染者的政策对平缓流行病曲线有显著效果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Advances in Difference Equations 数学-数学

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： The theory of difference equations, the methods used, and their wide applications have advanced beyond their adolescent stage to occupy a central position in applicable analysis. In fact, in the last 15 years, the proliferation of the subject has been witnessed by hundreds of research articles, several monographs, many international conferences, and numerous special sessions. The theory of differential and difference equations forms two extreme representations of real world problems. For example, a simple population model when represented as a differential equation shows the good behavior of solutions whereas the corresponding discrete analogue shows the chaotic behavior. The actual behavior of the population is somewhere in between. The aim of Advances in Difference Equations is to report mainly the new developments in the field of difference equations, and their applications in all fields. We will also consider research articles emphasizing the qualitative behavior of solutions of ordinary, partial, delay, fractional, abstract, stochastic, fuzzy, and set-valued differential equations. Advances in Difference Equations will accept high-quality articles containing original research results and survey articles of exceptional merit.