An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia.

IF 4.1 3区数学 Q1 Mathematics

Advances in Difference Equations Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-02-11 DOI:10.1186/s13662-021-03263-6

Muhammad Abdy, Syafruddin Side, Suwardi Annas, Wahyuddin Nur, Wahidah Sanusi

引用次数: 38

Abstract

The aim of this research is to construct an SIR model for COVID-19 with fuzzy parameters. The SIR model is constructed by considering the factors of vaccination, treatment, obedience in implementing health protocols, and the corona virus-load. Parameters of the infection rate, recovery rate, and death rate due to COVID-19 are constructed as a fuzzy number, and their membership functions are used in the model as fuzzy parameters. The model analysis uses the generation matrix method to obtain the basic reproduction number and the stability of the model's equilibrium points. Simulation results show that differences in corona virus-loads will also cause differences in the transmission of COVID-19. Likewise, the factors of vaccination and obedience in implementing health protocols have the same effect in slowing or stopping the transmission of COVID-19 in Indonesia.

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带有模糊参数的新冠肺炎SIR流行模型——以印度尼西亚为例

本研究的目的是构建具有模糊参数的COVID-19 SIR模型。SIR模型的构建考虑了疫苗接种、治疗、遵守卫生协议和冠状病毒载量等因素。将新冠肺炎的感染率、恢复率和死亡率参数构造为模糊数，并将其隶属函数作为模型中的模糊参数。模型分析采用生成矩阵法，得到模型的基本再现数和平衡点的稳定性。模拟结果表明，冠状病毒载量的差异也会导致COVID-19传播的差异。同样，接种疫苗和遵守卫生协议的因素在减缓或阻止2019冠状病毒病在印度尼西亚的传播方面具有同样的效果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Advances in Difference Equations 数学-数学

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： The theory of difference equations, the methods used, and their wide applications have advanced beyond their adolescent stage to occupy a central position in applicable analysis. In fact, in the last 15 years, the proliferation of the subject has been witnessed by hundreds of research articles, several monographs, many international conferences, and numerous special sessions. The theory of differential and difference equations forms two extreme representations of real world problems. For example, a simple population model when represented as a differential equation shows the good behavior of solutions whereas the corresponding discrete analogue shows the chaotic behavior. The actual behavior of the population is somewhere in between. The aim of Advances in Difference Equations is to report mainly the new developments in the field of difference equations, and their applications in all fields. We will also consider research articles emphasizing the qualitative behavior of solutions of ordinary, partial, delay, fractional, abstract, stochastic, fuzzy, and set-valued differential equations. Advances in Difference Equations will accept high-quality articles containing original research results and survey articles of exceptional merit.