Reconstructing the household transmission of influenza in the suburbs of Tokyo based on clinical cases.

Q1 Mathematics
Masaya M Saito, Nobuo Hirotsu, Hiroka Hamada, Mio Takei, Keisuke Honda, Takamichi Baba, Takahiro Hasegawa, Yoshitake Kitanishi
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Background: Influenza is a public health issue that needs to be addressed strategically. The assessment of detailed infectious profiles is an important part of this effort. Household transmission data play a key role in estimating such profiles. We used diagnostic and questionnaire-based data on influenza patients at a Japanese clinic to estimate the detailed infectious period (as well as incubation period, symptomatic and infectious periods, and extended infectious period after recovery) and the secondary attack ratio (SAR) of influenza for households of various sizes based on a modified Cauchemez-type model.

Results: The data were from enrolled patients with confirmed influenza who were treated at the Hirotsu Clinic (Kawasaki, Japan) with a neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) during six northern hemisphere influenza seasons between 2010 and 2016. A total of 2342 outpatients, representing 1807 households, were included. For influenza type A, the average incubation period was 1.43 days (95% probability interval, 0.03-5.32 days). The estimated average symptomatic and infective period was 1.76 days (0.33-4.62 days); the extended infective period after recovery was 0.25 days. The estimated SAR rose from 20 to 32% as household size increased from 3 to 5. For influenza type B, the average incubation period, average symptomatic and infective period, and extended infective period were estimated as 1.66 days (0.21-4.61), 2.62 days (0.54-5.75) and 1.00 days, respectively. The SAR increased from 12 to 21% as household size increased from 3 to 5.

Conclusion: All estimated periods of influenza type B were longer than the corresponding periods for type A. However, the SAR for type B was less than that for type A. These results may reflect Japanese demographics and treatment policy. Understanding the infectious profiles of influenza is necessary for assessing public health measures.

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基于临床病例的东京郊区流感家庭传播重建
背景:流感是一个需要战略性处理的公共卫生问题。详细的传染病概况评估是这项工作的重要组成部分。家庭传输数据在估计此类概况方面发挥关键作用。我们使用日本一家诊所流感患者的诊断和问卷调查数据,基于改进的cauchemez型模型估计不同规模家庭流感的详细感染期(以及潜伏期、症状期和感染期以及恢复后的延长感染期)和二次发作率(SAR)。结果:这些数据来自2010年至2016年六个北半球流感季节期间在Hirotsu Clinic (Kawasaki, Japan)接受神经氨酸酶抑制剂(NAI)治疗的确诊流感患者。共有2342名门诊病人,代表1807个家庭。甲型流感的平均潜伏期为1.43天(95%概率区间为0.03 ~ 5.32天)。估计平均症状期和感染期为1.76天(0.33 ~ 4.62天);恢复后延长感染期为0.25 d。随着家庭人数从3人增加到5人,估计的SAR从20%上升到32%。B型流感的平均潜伏期为1.66天(0.21 ~ 4.61天),平均症状和感染期为2.62天(0.54 ~ 5.75天),延长感染期为1.00天。随着家庭人数从3人增加到5人,该比率从12%增加到21%。结论:所有B型流感的估计周期均长于a型流感的相应周期,但B型流感的SAR小于a型流感。这些结果可能反映了日本的人口统计学和治疗政策。了解流感的传染概况对于评估公共卫生措施是必要的。
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来源期刊
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY-
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling is an open access peer-reviewed journal adopting a broad definition of "biology" and focusing on theoretical ideas and models associated with developments in biology and medicine. Mathematicians, biologists and clinicians of various specialisms, philosophers and historians of science are all contributing to the emergence of novel concepts in an age of systems biology, bioinformatics and computer modelling. This is the field in which Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling operates. We welcome submissions that are technically sound and offering either improved understanding in biology and medicine or progress in theory or method.
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