Analysis and projection of national and regional mortality for countries of the European Economic Area.

Abstract

"Three scenarios of future mortality trends are presented for all countries of the European Economic Area. The high scenario assumes a considerable decline in mortality rates. Consequently life expectancy at birth will continue to increase at about the same rate as during the last decades.... In the low scenario only a small decline in death rates is assumed. This scenario assumes that there will be no convergence between countries. Moreover the current differences between male and female mortality are assumed to persist."