Recent trends and prospects in world population growth.

Abstract

"This article assesses the causes of the stagnation in the declining trend in world population growth rates over the past decade. Three major factors have been identified as contributing to the stagnation: age structure, fertility trends in India and China, and the fact that although the number of developing countries with sustained declines in fertility levels rose sharply in the late 1960s and 1970s, it dropped off dramatically in the 1980s. Prospects for the growth rate in the 1990s favour a decline, owing to changes in the age structure and indications that China and India have resumed their fertility declines. However, there remain some populous developing countries that continue to have high levels of fertility. Fertility trends in those countries will have a certain influence on the world's growth rate."