A fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Abstract

This paper documents and summarizes data on the recent fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa and reviews the critical theoretical, methodological, and policy issues and controversies that the African situation provokes. After an introduction, African fertility change for the period 1960-94 is described through a discussion of fertility trends and of the proximate determinants of the fertility change. This discussion is illustrated with tables on the total fertility rate for countries of sub-Saharan Africa for the periods 1975-85 and 1986-93, and total fertility rates for countries participating in the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for the periods 0-3 and 4-7 years prior to the survey. Figures show maps of Africa displaying total fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa for 1975-85 and 1986- 93, and graphs of absolute and percentage change in total fertility rates for DHS countries between periods 0-3 and 4-7 years prior to the survey. The next section deals with theoretical issues such as whether the classic model of demographic transition is applicable to Africa and Jack Caldwell's views that cultural values make Africa different. It is seen that existing theory is of limited value in explaining the recent fertility decline in the region and that the two theories are beginning to converge to some degree. Consideration of methodological issues centers on the limited usefulness of fertility data collected by the large-scale, standardized demographic surveys to aid in the identification of patterns and processes. The discussion of policy issues is concerned with how survey data have been used and interpreted to formulate policy. The paper closes by reviewing the east Asian, South African, and Caribbean models of fertility decline and discussing problems in predicting the nature and extent of future fertility change in sub-Saharan Africa in light of recent findings.