National population scenarios for countries of the European Economic Area.

Abstract

"This article presents new population scenarios for the 18 countries of the European Economic Area (EEA) for the period 1995-2050. In most of these countries population size will continue to grow for some two to three decades. A major exception is Italy, which will see its population size decline rather sharply. According to the baseline scenario total population size of the 18 EEA countries will increase from 376 million in 1995 to 393 million in 2020. Around 2025 the total population size will start to decline. It will be about equal to the current level in 2050. Ageing is a common trend in all countries. The pace of the ageing process however differs between countries. Italy and Spain in particular will face a strongly ageing population. According to the baseline scenario, the percentage of the population aged 65 years or over in the 18 EEA countries will increase from 15 in 1995 to 28 in 2050."