[Evaluation of Dutch population forecasts].

Abstract

The author assesses the accuracy of population forecasts in the Netherlands. "Forecast errors may have been caused by either failures of the forecast model or by developments which do not correspond to the expectations. Due to large errors of forecasts made in the 1960s and 1970s a new forecasting model (the cohort-component-model) has been developed and used since. Important changes of trends in fertility, mortality and external migration were incorporated gradually in the hypotheses of successive forecasts. However, short term fluctuations may sometimes lead to incorrect adjustments of long term assumptions." (SUMMARY IN ENG)