[Growth and demography in the industrialized countries].

Abstract

The economic consequences of demographic aging in developed countries are assessed. "They include falls in savings ratios, rising inequalities, as well as consequences for productivity and the financing of pension schemes. The impact on long term growth is subsequently analysed. This is done by forecasting potential output, given reductions in the working populations of these countries.... Assuming that technology continues to advance as it has done since 1973, these demographic changes will lead to a clear fall in growth for both the United States and Japan. In Europe adapting to this new demographic context should be easier, as growth in recent decades has been based more on productivity gains." (SUMMARY IN ENG)