International migration scenarios for the European Economic Area.

Abstract

"This article describes the assumptions on international migration underlying the new population scenarios for countries of the European Economic Area. Three scenarios will be presented. The Baseline scenario describes a situation in which observed developments are continued. In the High scenario net migration is assumed to increase in the short run. In the long run this will provoke a political reaction, resulting in a significant reduction in the influx of migrants. In the Low scenario it is assumed that current net migration figures of the EEA will be halved in the next decade."