[[The tempo and quantum components in trends in period fertility measures in present-day Japan: a Butz-Ward-type model and its application]].

Abstract

"This paper examined the validity of a Butz-Ward-type model by applying it to trends in Japan's fertility rates from 1968 to 1986. Most of the existing studies on the Butz-Ward model used total fertility rates as the dependent variable. As the Butz-Ward model is concerned with couples' fertility behaviors, [the author uses]...total marital fertility rates. We first calculated total marital fertility rates (TMFR) from 1968 to 1986 by using data of Japan's National Fertility Surveys.... As a result of the auto-regression analysis of TMFR, we found a statistically significant negative effect of a rise in employed wife's wage rate as was expected. As for the timing indices, the third birth timing index was significantly positively affected by an increase in husband's income when his wife was employed, while the third birth was likely to be delayed by a rise in employed wife's wage rate." An English summary is available from the author.