State income tax policy and family size: fertility and the dependency exemption.

Abstract

Tax exemptions for dependents are a subsidy to having children and therefore create incentives for fertility. This article explores the relationship between the changing tax value of the state exemption for dependents—combined with the federal exemption—and the observed fertility choices of married couples. Using data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics (PSID), the article finds that the federal exemption does have a positive impact on differential period fertility for the sample of 229 married couples in this study. This effect is dampened by an offsetting labor force participation and marginal tax rate effect, but it does provide evidence that fiscal policy can influence fertility. State income tax exemptions do not appear to significantly influence the fertility decisions of the sample.