America's elderly.

Abstract

The older population in the US has grown twice as fast as the rest of the population in the last 20 years. This growth is expected to accelerate early in the next century as the large baby boom cohorts move through middle age and become elderly. Today, about 1 in 8 Americans is 65 years of age or older. By 2030, 1 out of every 4 persons will be in older person. Substantial improvements in life expectancy at all ages, particularly at extreme old age, mean that not only will there be a greater proportion of elderly in the population, but the more will be the "oldest-old," over 85. By 2050, they will be more than 1/4 of the population. As people live longer, many are active and healthy well past retirement. However, many individuals living into their 80s have to cope with chronic disabilities affecting their capacity to perform day-to-day activities. Modern medicine has made great inroads against mortality from such illnesses as heart disease and stroke, but has not eliminated all the effects of these diseases. As the population ages, the issues of health care funding and availability, particularly long-term care, increase in importance. Contrary to widespread belief, the elderly are not abandoned by their families to nursing home care. The vast majority--95%--live in the community. Those needing assistance generally receive help from family and friends. This has created a tremendous demand for federal subsidies to support community-based long-term care services. 1/4 of the federal budget is now spent on the elderly--$270 billion in 1986. Medicaid and Medicare are among the government's success stories, but these programs are threatened by their very success. Economists estimate that government expenditures are 3 times greater for the elderly than for children, raising the issue of "intergenerational equity"--how to balance the amount of care society provides to those who have already contributed with what is provided to those who will contribute in the future. The view that the young and old simply compete for fixed resources is misleading. It ignores the interdependence among generations, and the burdens and benefits of intergenerational transfers at all stages of the life course.