Projected requirements for radiation oncologists and trainees in Australia and New Zealand to 2007.

Abstract

Workloads in radiation oncology facilities in Australia and New Zealand have been increasing steadily for many years and it is anticipated that this trend will continue. In the present paper the projected number of radiation oncologists required to meet this demand to the year 2007 are estimated, along with the number of trainees required. The estimates are based on data from regular surveys by the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists (RANZCR) for the years 1988-97 (inclusive). From these surveys profiles of numbers, age and gender of specialists and trainees are documented together with increases from the training programme and losses from retirement. It is concluded that if the current trainee numbers are increased by 12 in Australia and two in New Zealand, there will be approximately 10 radiation oncologists per million of population by the year 2007. This number is considered appropriate considering the anticipated increase in demands and complexity of treatment. Because projections too far forward are unreliable, careful monitoring of progress is essential to obtain the appropriate balance between requirement and supply. Comparisons are made with other estimates of needs including the 1998 Australian Medical Workforce Advisory Committee (AMWAC) Report and the New Zealand Clinical Agency Workforce Project Report in 1997.