How permanent are NHS waiting lists?

Abstract

A model of consultant behaviour is referred to and a hypothesis of this model (that a 1% increase in consultant numbers will lead to a 1% increase in the surgical waiting list) is tested using NHS time-series data for general surgery. The econometric formulation of the hypothesis is able to distinguish between short- and long-run effects and it is suggested that 78% of the final increase in waiting lists will have occurred within two years of the increase in consultant numbers. Although the findings of this study are not particularly encouraging for policy-makers anxious to reduce waiting lists, some possible initiatives in the area of waiting list management are assessed. It has been suggested that waiting lists exist because consultants are able to control their own work load. It follows that waiting lists will remain a problem as long as consultants are guided by an inappropriate incentive structure. Hence an admissions index or something similar should bring about a harmonization of admission policies.