Anticipating regional futures? The promises, prospects and pitfalls of the Basque Model

Abstract

Abstract Over the past three decades, the Basque Country has been celebrated as a balanced and inclusive model of regional development. Yet the compounding pressures of a global polycrisis—climate change, geopolitical turbulence, digital disruption and democratic backsliding—now expose its limits. This paper examines how institutions, policymakers and activists confront these challenges through anticipatory governance and contested development pathways. Drawing on 2024 fieldwork, we argue that the Basque Model illustrates both the promises and pitfalls of hybrid strategies that selectively adapt emergent imaginaries of the future. The case highlights broader lessons for rethinking anticipatory regional development in uncertain and polarised times.