Supply disruptions, economic slack, and the state-dependent Phillips curve

Abstract

This paper investigates how supply disruptions and economic slack affect the responsiveness of inflation to changes in aggregate demand. We propose and estimate a nonlinear Phillips curve, whereby the sensitivity of inflation to changes in demand varies with supply conditions and the amount of slack in the economy. We find evidence that supply disruptions and low unemployment both steepen the Phillips curve, thereby amplifying the inflationary effects of increased demand. Our results suggest that the effects of fiscal policy on inflation depend on the prevailing supply conditions and the level of unemployment in the economy.