Caught in the line of fire: tariffs and the global hospitality workforce

Abstract

Purpose This critical reflection article critically examines how contemporary tariff regimes, particularly reciprocal and retaliatory trade measures, are reshaping the global hospitality workforce. Moving beyond traditional economic analyses of tariffs, by developing three propositions, it foregrounds labour dynamics to explore how trade policy functions as an indirect but powerful determinant of employment stability, mobility, equity and workforce development in hospitality. Design/methodology/approach This critical reflection paper synthesises interdisciplinary literature from international trade, tourism economics, labour studies, hospitality management and shock/crisis literature. The macro-meso-micro analytical framework is used to conceptualise how tariff policies cascade from geopolitical and institutional contexts to firm-level responses and individual worker outcomes. Findings The analysis reveals that tariffs generate second- and third-order labour effects that are largely absent from trade and tourism policy debates. These include heightened labour-market volatility, suppressed wages, growth in informal and precarious employment, constrained international labour mobility, weakened global talent pipelines and underinvestment in workforce training. These impacts disproportionately affect migrant workers, women and early-career professionals, while intensifying regional and demographic inequalities, particularly in tourism-dependent and developing economies. Practical implications The paper outlines forward-looking interventions for firms, industry bodies and policymakers, including regionalised supply-chain strategies, investment in workforce multiskilling, inclusive adoption of technology, strengthened policy-industry coalitions and scenario-based workforce planning. It argues for embedding labour mobility, skills recognition and workforce protection into future trade frameworks to enhance sectoral resilience. Originality/value This study reframes tariffs as labour-shaping mechanisms rather than purely macroeconomic tools, offering one of the first workforce-centred conceptualisations of trade policy impacts in hospitality. By repositioning the hospitality workforce at the centre of tariff discourse, the paper advances theory, informs policy and provides a foundation for future empirical research on trade-labour-tourism interdependencies.