Post-earthquake monitoring of drinking-water quality and health risk in Kahramanmaraş Province, Türkiye: a two-timepoint screening assessment.

IF 4.3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Environmental Geochemistry and Health Pub Date : 2026-10-05 DOI:10.1007/s10653-026-03517-w

Serdar Çetinkaya, Hacer Aydin, Mehmet Çetin, Enis Macit, Onur Erdem

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes damaged water-supply infrastructure, but post-earthquake drinking-water quality and health risk in the epicentral region remain poorly characterized. This study assessed trace element contamination and cumulative human health risk in municipal drinking water from all 11 districts of Kahramanmaraş Province at ~ 18 (August 2024) and ~ 24 months (February 2025) post-earthquake, using ICP-MS, the Water Quality Index, deterministic/probabilistic (Monte Carlo) health risk assessment, and multivariate statistics. All concentrations remained below drinking-water guideline values (WQI = 3.1-13.4), yet substantial spatial heterogeneity was observed. Children were most vulnerable, with hazard index > 1 in up to four districts per campaign; arsenic contributed ~ 76% of cumulative non-carcinogenic risk. Deterministic carcinogenic risk exceeded the 1 × 10^-4 benchmark in 21 of 44 district-period-population combinations, consistently in Afşin, Türkoğlu, and Elbistan; these exceedances reflect the substantially higher arsenic cancer slope factor adopted in the January 2025 US EPA IRIS update (32 (mg/kg/day)^-1, versus 1.5 previously) rather than a deterioration in measured arsenic concentrations, all of which remained below the WHO/TS266 guideline value. Monte Carlo simulations identified the same districts as recurring, screening-level exceedance hotspots. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that major earthquakes can shape drinking-water exposure patterns long after the immediate disaster period, although the absence of a pre-earthquake baseline or control area precludes direct causal attribution. This study provides the first province-wide assessment of post-earthquake drinking-water quality and health risk following the 2023 Türkiye earthquakes, underscoring the need for cumulative, probabilistic, and long-term monitoring in post-disaster water management.

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吉尔吉斯斯坦kahramanmarai省地震后饮用水质量和健康风险监测：两个时间点筛选评估。

2023年2月的kahramanmaraki地震破坏了供水基础设施，但震中地区震后饮用水质量和健康风险的特征仍然很差。本研究利用ICP-MS、水质指数、确定性/概率（蒙特卡洛）健康风险评估和多变量统计，评估了地震后18 ~ 18个月（2024年8月）和24个月（2025年2月）卡纳曼马拉伊省所有11个地区的城市饮用水中微量元素污染和人类累积健康风险。所有浓度均低于饮用水指导值（WQI = 3.1-13.4），但存在明显的空间异质性。儿童是最脆弱的，每次运动中多达四个地区的危险指数为bb101；砷占累积非致癌风险的76%。在44个地区-时期-人群组合中，有21个的确定性致癌风险超过了1 × 10-4基准，在阿富汗、Türkoğlu和伊尔比斯坦也是一致的；这些超标反映了2025年1月美国环保署IRIS更新中采用的砷致癌斜率系数(32 （mg/kg/天）-1，而不是测量砷浓度的恶化，所有这些都低于WHO/TS266指导值。蒙特卡罗模拟将相同的地区确定为反复出现的筛查级超标热点。这些发现与假设一致，即大地震可以在灾难发生后很长一段时间内塑造饮用水暴露模式，尽管缺乏震前基线或控制区排除了直接因果归因。本研究首次在全省范围内评估了2023年基叶地震后的饮用水质量和健康风险，强调了在灾后水管理中进行累积、概率和长期监测的必要性。

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来源期刊

Environmental Geochemistry and Health 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

8.00

自引率

4.80%

发文量

279

审稿时长

4.2 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Geochemistry and Health publishes original research papers and review papers across the broad field of environmental geochemistry. Environmental geochemistry and health establishes and explains links between the natural or disturbed chemical composition of the earth’s surface and the health of plants, animals and people. Beneficial elements regulate or promote enzymatic and hormonal activity whereas other elements may be toxic. Bedrock geochemistry controls the composition of soil and hence that of water and vegetation. Environmental issues, such as pollution, arising from the extraction and use of mineral resources, are discussed. The effects of contaminants introduced into the earth’s geochemical systems are examined. Geochemical surveys of soil, water and plants show how major and trace elements are distributed geographically. Associated epidemiological studies reveal the possibility of causal links between the natural or disturbed geochemical environment and disease. Experimental research illuminates the nature or consequences of natural or disturbed geochemical processes. The journal particularly welcomes novel research linking environmental geochemistry and health issues on such topics as: heavy metals (including mercury), persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and mixed chemicals emitted through human activities, such as uncontrolled recycling of electronic-waste; waste recycling; surface-atmospheric interaction processes (natural and anthropogenic emissions, vertical transport, deposition, and physical-chemical interaction) of gases and aerosols; phytoremediation/restoration of contaminated sites; food contamination and safety; environmental effects of medicines; effects and toxicity of mixed pollutants; speciation of heavy metals/metalloids; effects of mining; disturbed geochemistry from human behavior, natural or man-made hazards; particle and nanoparticle toxicology; risk and the vulnerability of populations, etc.