Agriculture-urban interfaces, social vulnerability and climate change shape West Nile virus risk across the United States.

Abstract

Climate and land use change are reshaping the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. West Nile virus (WNV), the most widespread zoonotic arbovirus in the United States, illustrates the need to integrate climate, land cover and social vulnerability across heterogeneous landscapes when assessing spatial risk. We present a nationwide, county-level assessment of WNV risk using complementary statistical and mechanistic models to (i) identify socioecological correlates of current WNV incidence and (ii) project vector species-specific, temperature-dependent transmission suitability under mid- and late-century climate change scenarios. We found that land cover gradients, temperature-driven transmission and both occupational and residential exposure are associated with WNV incidence, particularly in mixed urban-agricultural landscapes. Future temperature and land cover projections suggest spatially variable shifts in environmental risk driven by divergent physiological responses among Culex species vectors. Our results highlight temperature and land cover as consistent, mechanistically grounded correlates of WNV risk at the national scale, while underscoring the need for refined, mosquito species-specific analyses at local levels. These insights can inform more targeted surveillance, vector control and climate adaptation strategies. We also identified key knowledge gaps, particularly around host and vector ecology, which must be addressed to improve public health responses in the face of ongoing environmental change.