Credit Risk Evaluation Framework Based on Heterogeneous Information: Integrating Three-Way Decision and Graph Sample and Aggregate

IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Journal of Forecasting Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-12 DOI:10.1002/for.70183
Jia-Wei Zhang, Jian-Qiang Wang, Wen-Hui Hou, Xiao-Kang Wang, Ya-Nan Wang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Evaluating credit risk is crucial for financial institutions because it determines whether loans should be granted to applicants, impacting potential returns and losses for the institution. However, modeling the heterogeneous information of applicants while simultaneously balancing institutional gains and losses faced by the institution is a complex challenge. To address the issues, this study proposes a credit risk evaluation framework with heterogeneous information: combining three-way decision (TWD) theory and graph sample and aggregate (GraphSAGE) learning. This framework (i) integrates a fuzzy similarity relation based on fuzzy theory, constructing a GraphSAGE model for graph-structured data, (ii) combines the results of GraphSAGE with the TWD theory to divide loan applications into three regions: positive, negative, and boundary, and (iii) adds additional information for instances of the boundary for final evaluations, providing new perspectives for research in credit risk evaluation. The experiment results demonstrate the excellent effectiveness of the method in credit risk evaluation, coping well with data imbalances while balancing losses and gains.

基于异构信息的信用风险评估框架:三向决策与图样本与集合的集成
信用风险评估对金融机构来说至关重要,因为它决定了是否应该向申请人发放贷款,从而影响到机构的潜在回报和损失。然而,如何在对申请人的异构信息进行建模的同时,平衡制度的得失是一项复杂的挑战。为了解决这一问题,本研究提出了一种基于异构信息的信用风险评估框架:将三向决策(TWD)理论与图样本与聚合(GraphSAGE)学习相结合。该框架(1)整合基于模糊理论的模糊相似关系,构建图结构数据的GraphSAGE模型;(2)将GraphSAGE结果与TWD理论相结合,将贷款申请划分为正、负、边界三个区域;(3)为边界实例添加附加信息,进行最终评价,为信用风险评价的研究提供了新的视角。实验结果表明,该方法在信用风险评估中具有良好的有效性,能够在平衡损失与收益的同时很好地处理数据不平衡问题。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
5.90%
发文量
91
期刊介绍: The Journal of Forecasting is an international journal that publishes refereed papers on forecasting. It is multidisciplinary, welcoming papers dealing with any aspect of forecasting: theoretical, practical, computational and methodological. A broad interpretation of the topic is taken with approaches from various subject areas, such as statistics, economics, psychology, systems engineering and social sciences, all encouraged. Furthermore, the Journal welcomes a wide diversity of applications in such fields as business, government, technology and the environment. Of particular interest are papers dealing with modelling issues and the relationship of forecasting systems to decision-making processes.
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