GM Mustard in India: An Ex-ante Impact Assessment

Abstract

Dhara Mustard Hybrid-11 (DMH-11), despite controversy surrounding its cultivation, became India’s first genetically modified (GM) food crop that could likely reach the kitchens. Existing studies often focus on the agronomic and environmental aspects of GM mustard, but there are notable gaps when it comes to quantitative impact evaluation. Against this backdrop, an attempt has been made for the ex-ante impact assessment of the GM mustard variety i.e., DMH-11, using the economic surplus model. The analysis was done for a decade starting from 2024 to 2034 in India. The contribution of this study is unique to the literature on GM food crops, as it provides insights into possible economic benefits to the farmers and consumers, as well as society as a whole, due to the adoption and cultivation of GM food crops. The analysis suggests a substantial total economic surplus of ₹6 lakh million by 2034, with a net present value of ₹2.72 lakh million, an internal rate of return of 264%, and a benefit–cost ratio of 353 on research cost, indicating very high returns on research investment on developing GM food crops.