A semantic geometry for uncovering paradigm dynamics via scientific publications

Abstract

Science advances not only by accumulating discovered patterns but by changing how new problems and solutions are expressed. While structural indicators track scholarly attention, they offer only an indirect proxy for the reorganization of meaning. We propose a semantic geometry based on the R–P–C (references, focal publication, and citing publications) framework to quantify how a publication positions itself relative to its knowledge base and diffusion. This geometry identifies three publication types: consolidating, exploratory, and balanced. Our results show that the semantic similarity and distance between a publication's knowledge base and diffusion serve as a semantic foundation for disruption, with novelty (atypical reference combinations) acting as an antecedent disturbance that triggers a semantic rupture. This is related to team size, where small teams preserve a higher potential for exploratory departures while large collaborations systematically align with paradigmatic consolidation. Crucially, this geometry explains why citation trajectories differ; consolidating research earns rapid recognition by lowering comprehension costs, while exploratory work faces high paradigm conversion costs that result in slower, more selective diffusion. Collectively, this R–P–C framework provides a robust instrument for monitoring the dynamics of scientific paradigms.