Indigenous agroforestry as a nature-based climate solution: meta-analytic evidence from shifting cultivation landscapes of Northeast India

Abstract

Shifting cultivation (jhum) in Northeast India has long been debated within policy and environmental discourse, often portrayed as ecologically degrading under shortened fallow cycles. However, emerging evidence suggests that Indigenous agroforestry transitions represent adaptive transformations rather than abandonment of traditional systems. This systematic review synthesized evidence from 39 eligible studies representing 128 agroforestry sites across Northeast India; 28 studies contributed quantitative data to the meta-analysis. We evaluated ecological multifunctionality (biodiversity, carbon stocks, soil and hydrological indicators), socioeconomic resilience, and policy alignment with national and global climate commitments. Meta-analytic estimates indicated positive associations between agroforestry and biodiversity indicators, although effect magnitude and heterogeneity varied across outcomes. Agroforestry systems showed higher reported ecosystem carbon stocks than the selected comparison systems, with between-study variability in effect magnitude. Positive associations were observed for soil and hydrological indicators, including erosion and infiltration, although the available evidence was heterogeneous. Available studies generally reported greater livelihood diversification under agroforestry, while evidence for income and livelihood outcomes was less certain. Older systems tended to show larger ecological benefits, but this relationship should be interpreted cautiously because system age and site characteristics were not independently controlled across all studies. The findings indicate potential relevance to national climate, biodiversity and livelihood objectives; climate-finance estimates are presented as illustrative scenarios rather than realised financial returns. Overall, the evidence supports agroforestry as a context-dependent land-use option with potential ecological and livelihood benefits, while highlighting uncertainty related to study quality, system type and environmental context.