Waste collection fleet and operational cost under final disposal site (TPA) relocation crisis: a multi-scenario analysis for South Tangerang City, Indonesia

Abstract

The closure of the Cipeucang final disposal site (TPA) on 8 December 2025 triggered a waste-management crisis in South Tangerang City (Tangsel), a Jakarta satellite city generating about 1,100 tonnes of municipal solid waste per day. Building on a previously validated and optimised collection network, this study evaluates four post-closure relocation scenarios in terms of fleet size, round-trip frequency, fuel use, and operational cost. SC1 is the closed baseline (≈ 5 km haul to Cipeucang, reference only). SC2 routes all waste to TPSA Cilowong, Serang (≈ 65 km), reflecting the operational reality of 120 t/d carried by 30 trucks by February 2026. SC3 routes all waste to TPA Bangkonol, Pandeglang (≈ 82 km). SC4 is a 50:50 hybrid split between Cilowong and Bangkonol. The analysis shows that moving from SC1 to SC3 raises the annual operating cost by about 325% (from USD 0.90 million to USD 3.81 million per year) and reduces the effective round trips per truck per day from 2.3 to 0.6, forcing a 3.8-fold fleet expansion from 62 to 235 trucks to maintain the existing 367.5 t/d collection coverage; the SC4 hybrid requires 173 trucks (a 2.8-fold expansion). Among the long-haul options, SC4 offers the most robust per-tonne cost when both sites must be used, although routing all waste to the nearer Cilowong site (SC2) is the lowest-cost single-destination option. A transfer-station architecture (SC3+/SC4+) cuts the required fleet-expansion capital by 70–80%. These findings show that the four-year Rp 190.8 billion Bangkonol transport budget omits the transport operating cost (about 57% of the budget) and provide a transferable framework for the many Indonesian cities that must relocate their disposal sites under the national open-dumping closure mandate.