Integrated probabilistic risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in urban soils: implications for children's and birds' health.

Abstract

Urban land use and historical industrial development generate spatially heterogeneous patterns of soil contamination that translate into unequal health risks for children and urban wildlife. This study used Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence Spectroscopy (ED-XRF) and soil mapping to evaluate the presence and distribution of metals in urban soil. Subsequently, child and bird health risks from heavy metal exposure were assessed. The objective was to perform an Integrated Probabilistic Environmental Risk Assessment (IPERA) to estimate health risks in children and birds from exposure to soil contaminated with potentially toxic elements (PTEs). This study revealed the presence of PTEs in the soil of the metropolitan area of San Luis Potosí; Mn, Zn and Pb were found at the highest concentration, and marked spatial variation was observed across the study area, with the Morales-Aviación zone being the most contaminated (MPI = 116.68). When calculating the Hazard Quotient (HQ), it was observed that the greatest risk for birds was Pb (9.35), while for children was As (1.33). Results showed that accumulated hazard index (HI) values for birds were greater than 1 in all areas and exceeded those estimated for children. In conclusion, the soil of the metropolitan area of San Luis Potosí is contaminated and may pose potential health risk to the health of children as well as in resident ecological receptors. These findings provide a spatially explicit framework for prioritizing environmental surveillance and targeted risk-reduction strategies, while supporting integrated health approaches in rapidly urbanizing settings.