Simulation of the Consequences due to Scenario Earthquakes: A Case Study of Cities in the Krasnodar Krai

Abstract

The article examines the consequences of scenario earthquakes for settlements of Krasnodar Krai, including the cities of Krasnodar and Tuapse. The aim of the study is to provide realistic estimates of damage and risk indicators resulting from predicted strong and felt earthquakes in the study area. The tools and simulation methods used to assess the potential impact of scenario earthquakes on buildings and the population of the region are described. The paper presents methodological materials and the results of calibrating seismic intensity attenuation models based on an analysis of historical seismicity data for the region. Baseline data have been updated to account for the specific building stock characteristics of Krasnodar Krai settlements. Maps of potential damage to the building stock, maps of individual seismic risk, and economic vulnerability at the regional and urban levels are presented. Particular attention is paid to the rapid modeling of the consequences of a felt earthquake that occurred near the city of Krasnodar on January 24, 2024. This event was used to verify the models and assess the accuracy of the obtained results. It is confirmed that the models adequately reflect the extent of potential damage and meet the specified requirements. The obtained data can be used for planning risk mitigation measures and increasing regional resilience to potential natural disasters.