Distribution and Evolution of Net Carbon Sink in Chinese Sugarcane Industry

Abstract

Accurate quantification and precise prediction of the net carbon sink, together with the examination of its spatiotemporal evolution, are essential for advancing the low-carbon transformation of Chinese sugarcane industry. In this study, the spatial distribution and evolutionary trajectory were delineated, the decoupling relationship between the sugarcane net carbon sink and output value was analyzed, and precise predictions of the net carbon sink were conducted in Chinese sugarcane industry. Results showed that, from 2012 to 2023, the total net carbon sink displayed a fluctuating yet gradually declining trend, with an average value of 13.5906 million tons. Besides, the spatial configuration of the total net carbon sink was primarily characterized by a “northwest–southeast” distribution pattern. Regarding the projected total net carbon sink for 2024 and 2025, it is estimated at 13.7527 and 13.2282 million tons, respectively, with corresponding theoretical values of 2.063 and 1.984 billion US dollars. It is thus recommended that the planting scale in primary producing regions be maintained, the “northwest–southeast” spatial structure be reinforced, and the recovery and development of Hainan’s sugarcane sector be promoted. Rational monetization of the sugarcane net carbon sink is also suggested to elevate the overall industrial output value and benefits.