Divergent trends in Alzheimer's disease burden: a comparative analysis of the US and G20 nations.

IF 3.2 3区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

International Journal of Public Health Pub Date : 2026-08-05 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI:10.3389/ijph.2026.1609525

Yuexiao Zou, Qingxian Wang, Qingxiang Zhang, Xiaorui Cheng

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective: Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADOD) impose growing systemic stress. This study compared epidemiological trends and risk factors between the US and G20 to guide resource allocation.

Methods: Using GBD 2023 data, we analyzed incidence, mortality, and DALY rates with Joinpoint regression (1990-2023) and ARIMA forecasting (to 2040).

Results: In 2023, US age-standardized incidence rate was 130 (95% CI: 110.5-147.3), mortality rate 30 (7.4-73.2), and DALY rate 510 (224.8-1059.6), all declining from 1990. G20 rates remained lower but showed an upward inflection after 2020. Joinpoint analysis revealed overall downward trends, with a transient US resurgence (1998-2004); projections suggest continued deceleration. Smoking and high fasting plasma glucose burdens in the US were disproportionately elevated compared to G20.

Conclusion: The US achieved morbidity compression yet faced rising absolute caseloads due to demographic momentum. G20's post-2020 upturn signals an emerging burden. A shift from smoking to metabolic drivers necessitates primary prevention for G20 and targeted metabolic management for the US.

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阿尔茨海默病负担的不同趋势：美国和20国集团国家的比较分析。

目的：阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆（ADOD）造成越来越大的全身压力。本研究比较了美国和G20之间的流行病学趋势和危险因素，以指导资源配置。方法：使用GBD 2023数据，采用Joinpoint回归（1990-2023）和ARIMA预测（至2040）分析发病率、死亡率和DALY率。结果：2023年，美国年龄标准化发病率为130 (95% CI: 110.5-147.3)，死亡率为30 (7.4-73.2)，DALY率为510(224.8-1059.6)，均较1990年下降。20国集团的利率仍然较低，但在2020年之后出现了上升趋势。联合点分析显示总体呈下降趋势，美国出现短暂复苏（1998-2004）；预测显示，经济将继续减速。与20国集团相比，美国的吸烟和高空腹血糖负担不成比例地增加。结论：美国实现了发病率的压缩，但由于人口增长势头，面临着绝对病例量的上升。G20在2020年后的好转标志着一个新的负担。从吸烟到代谢驱动因素的转变需要G20的初级预防和美国的有针对性的代谢管理。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Public Health 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

2.20%

发文量

269

审稿时长

12 months

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Public Health publishes scientific articles relevant to global public health, from different countries and cultures, and assembles them into issues that raise awareness and understanding of public health problems and solutions. The Journal welcomes submissions of original research, critical and relevant reviews, methodological papers and manuscripts that emphasize theoretical content. IJPH sometimes publishes commentaries and opinions. Special issues highlight key areas of current research. The Editorial Board''s mission is to provide a thoughtful forum for contemporary issues and challenges in global public health research and practice.