The Quest for Freedom and Migration Aspirations: Evidence from the MENA Region

Abstract

This article develops and empirically tests a theory of migration under repression. It argues that migration aspirations are shaped by perceived freedom repression and that such perceptions can make exit more attractive when voice appears blocked, risky, or ineffective. The theoretical framework yields four hypotheses, which we test using Arab Barometer data from 2021 to 2024 covering about 34,000 respondents in 12 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. Empirically, we construct a Freedom Repression Index and examine how perceived repression shapes migration aspirations across different freedom dimensions and migration routes. Four findings stand out. First, perceived repression significantly increases migration aspirations, with substantive effects comparable to standard economic push factors. Second, the association is strongest for personal liberties, especially freedom of expression and freedom of religion, whereas restrictions on collective political rights such as protest are less strongly associated with migration aspirations. Third, repression shifts intentions toward irregular rather than regular migration routes. Fourth, this relationship is context-dependent; it is strongest in stable yet restrictive settings and weakens in conflict-affected contexts where insecurity dominates. By disaggregating freedom dimensions and distinguishing regular from irregular intentions, the article connects exit-voice theory to micro-level evidence and clarifies when, which, and how perceived repression shapes migration aspirations in the MENA region.