A Novel Multilevel Conceptual Framework for Flood Risk Governance

Abstract

Globally, flood risk is increasing as climate change progresses. Contemporary flood risk management practice often utilises hydrodynamic modelling (for hazard risk assessments), social vulnerability assessments, and risk communications in silo, which fragments evidence-based decision-making for effective flood risk management. We hence develop a multilevel flood risk governance framework that integrates flood Hazard modelling ($H$), social Vulnerability assessments ($V$) and risk Communication ($C$) through three cores, three pairwise interfaces, and a central decision-ready space. We provide a conceptual illustration of how the framework can be operationalised before discussing the wider theoretical and practical implications of it in terms of its ability to better guide flood risk governance. Our conceptual framework treats $C$ as coequal with $H$ and $V$ and specifies information flows between them to support more timely, accountable decisions for flood risk governance. Our illustration outlines a minimal-data workflow based on open-access data sources and transparent assumptions, showing how uncertainty at different stages can be presented and acted upon in resource and capacity-constrained environments.