Day-Ahead Area-PV-Output Prediction by Autoencoder with Normalized Image Data of Multiple Meteorological Elements

IF 1 4区工程技术 Q4 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

IEEJ Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Engineering Pub Date : 2026-08-09 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI:10.1002/tee.70252

Yu Soke, Yusuke Mori, Shinji Wakao, Hideaki Ohtake, Takahiro Takamatsu, Takashi Oozeki

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The amount of photovoltaic (PV) introduced in Japan is increasing year by year. On the other hand, the issue with PV is that the amount of power generated fluctuates due to changes in the weather, which can disrupt the power demand and supply balance and have negative effects on the power system. To address this issue, technology that accurately predicts PV power generation is essential. Therefore, we predicted total PV power generation for the next day in the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) area. In this paper, we proposed a method that adds normalized images of variables forecasted from Meso-Scale Model (MSM) of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the average values of weather information indicating the characteristics of the area to the input of Autoencoder, and confirmed that prediction accuracy was improved. It was also shown that prediction accuracy could be further improved by adding daytime and solar altitude data. © 2026 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan and Wiley Periodicals LLC.

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基于多气象要素归一化图像数据的自编码器日前区域pv输出预测

日本引进的光伏（PV）数量逐年增加。另一方面，光伏发电的问题在于，由于天气的变化，发电量会出现波动，这可能会破坏电力供需平衡，对电力系统产生负面影响。为了解决这个问题，准确预测光伏发电的技术是必不可少的。因此，我们预测了东京电力公司（TEPCO）区域第二天的光伏发电总量。本文提出了一种将日本气象厅（JMA）中尺度模式（MSM）预报变量的归一化图像和指示该地区特征的天气信息平均值加到自编码器输入的方法，并验证了预测精度的提高。结果表明，通过增加日间和太阳高度数据，可以进一步提高预报精度。©2026日本电气工程师学会和Wiley期刊有限责任公司。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

IEEJ Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Engineering 工程技术-工程：电子与电气

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

10.00%

发文量

199

审稿时长

4.3 months

期刊介绍： IEEJ Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Engineering (hereinafter called TEEE ) publishes 6 times per year as an official journal of the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan (hereinafter "IEEJ"). This peer-reviewed journal contains original research papers and review articles on the most important and latest technological advances in core areas of Electrical and Electronic Engineering and in related disciplines. The journal also publishes short communications reporting on the results of the latest research activities TEEE ) aims to provide a new forum for IEEJ members in Japan as well as fellow researchers in Electrical and Electronic Engineering from around the world to exchange ideas and research findings.