Fatemeh Shahbazi, Faezeh Heidari, Ali Khezriyan, Erfan Ayubi, Salman Khazaei, Ali Shojaeian
{"title":"Gastric Cancer Incidence in Iran: Trends and Projections to 2030 based on Global Burden of Disease 2021 Estimates.","authors":"Fatemeh Shahbazi, Faezeh Heidari, Ali Khezriyan, Erfan Ayubi, Salman Khazaei, Ali Shojaeian","doi":"10.1007/s12029-026-01550-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Gastric cancer (GC) is a leading contributor to cancer-related illness and death globally, presenting a significant public health concern in Iran. There is a lack of extensive data regarding long-term trends at both national and regional levels for GC incidence and its anticipated future impact. This research aimed to investigate the changes in gastric cancer rates in Iran from 1990 to 2021 and to forecast incidence rates through 2030 by gender, age groups, and provinces.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This research used secondary ecological data from the GBD 2021 research to investigate the incidence of GC in Iran from 1990 to 2021. Temporal trends were assessed with Joinpoint Regression to determine the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC). Also, a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was then applied to project new cases and incidence rates up to 2030. We used from R and Joinpoint software for all analyses.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From 1990 to 2021, Iran saw nearly a twofold increase in new GC instances; however, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) significantly fell from 23.12 to 14.37 per 100,000 individuals. The most significant decreases were observed in the northwestern provinces and among females. Forecasts for 2030 show that the absolute number of cases will likely increase to around 12,070, yet the ASIR is predicted to see a slight drop to 13.44, with a stagnation in decrease for individuals over 80 years old, suggesting a gradual slowdown in the overall trend.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Although there has been a persistent reduction in the age-standardized incidence rate of GC in Iran over the last thirty years, the sheer number of cases is still increasing owing to demographic growth and an aging population. To combat this rising challenge, future initiatives should focus on implementing targeted screening in high-risk areas and for elderly populations, improving geriatric healthcare, and addressing inequalities in healthcare access through better collaboration across sectors.</p>","PeriodicalId":15895,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2026-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12029-026-01550-7","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: Gastric cancer (GC) is a leading contributor to cancer-related illness and death globally, presenting a significant public health concern in Iran. There is a lack of extensive data regarding long-term trends at both national and regional levels for GC incidence and its anticipated future impact. This research aimed to investigate the changes in gastric cancer rates in Iran from 1990 to 2021 and to forecast incidence rates through 2030 by gender, age groups, and provinces.
Methods: This research used secondary ecological data from the GBD 2021 research to investigate the incidence of GC in Iran from 1990 to 2021. Temporal trends were assessed with Joinpoint Regression to determine the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC). Also, a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was then applied to project new cases and incidence rates up to 2030. We used from R and Joinpoint software for all analyses.
Results: From 1990 to 2021, Iran saw nearly a twofold increase in new GC instances; however, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) significantly fell from 23.12 to 14.37 per 100,000 individuals. The most significant decreases were observed in the northwestern provinces and among females. Forecasts for 2030 show that the absolute number of cases will likely increase to around 12,070, yet the ASIR is predicted to see a slight drop to 13.44, with a stagnation in decrease for individuals over 80 years old, suggesting a gradual slowdown in the overall trend.
Conclusions: Although there has been a persistent reduction in the age-standardized incidence rate of GC in Iran over the last thirty years, the sheer number of cases is still increasing owing to demographic growth and an aging population. To combat this rising challenge, future initiatives should focus on implementing targeted screening in high-risk areas and for elderly populations, improving geriatric healthcare, and addressing inequalities in healthcare access through better collaboration across sectors.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer is a multidisciplinary medium for the publication of novel research pertaining to cancers arising from the gastrointestinal tract.The journal is dedicated to the most rapid publication possible.The journal publishes papers in all relevant fields, emphasizing those studies that are helpful in understanding and treating cancers affecting the esophagus, stomach, liver, gallbladder and biliary tree, pancreas, small bowel, large bowel, rectum, and anus. In addition, the Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer publishes basic and translational scientific information from studies providing insight into the etiology and progression of cancers affecting these organs. New insights are provided from diverse areas of research such as studies exploring pre-neoplastic states, risk factors, epidemiology, genetics, preclinical therapeutics, surgery, radiation therapy, novel medical therapeutics, clinical trials, and outcome studies.In addition to reports of original clinical and experimental studies, the journal also publishes: case reports, state-of-the-art reviews on topics of immediate interest or importance; invited articles analyzing particular areas of pancreatic research and knowledge; perspectives in which critical evaluation and conflicting opinions about current topics may be expressed; meeting highlights that summarize important points presented at recent meetings; abstracts of symposia and conferences; book reviews; hypotheses; Letters to the Editors; and other items of special interest, including:Complex Cases in GI Oncology: This is a new initiative to provide a forum to review and discuss the history and management of complex and involved gastrointestinal oncology cases. The format will be similar to a teaching case conference where a case vignette is presented and is followed by a series of questions and discussion points. A brief reference list supporting the points made in discussion would be expected.
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