Global Temporal Trends in Prevalence of Hearing Loss in Young Adults Aged 15-39 Years and Projections to 2040.

IF 1.6 4区医学 Q3 Medicine

Iranian Journal of Public Health Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI:10.18502/ijph.v54i12.20823

Xin Gong, Yongqi Dong, Yinxia Xu, Chao Yuan, Xiaoling Zhang, Shiyong Xiao, Dan Wu, Deping Wang

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Abstract

Background: Hearing loss (HL) constitutes a significant hazard to the health and social welfare, yet there is a lack of data on its burden in young adults (YAs) aged 15-39 yr. This study aimed to delineate the global temporal trends and predict the future burden of HL in YAs.

Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021, we analyzed the prevalent cases and age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) of HL in YAs by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index(SDI). The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to assess trends, while the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model projected future epidemiological trajectories.

Results: Globally, HL prevalent cases in YAs increased from 171.77 million (95% CI: 145.95-200.16) in 1992 to 256.16 million (95% CI: 222.49-293.87) in 2021. The ASPR rose from 7862.80 to 8474.66 per 100,000 over this period, with males consistently showing higher rates than females. APC analysis revealed age-dependent increases in hearing loss risk, adverse period effects in recent years (2012-2021), and a peak relative risk in the 1997-2006 birth cohort. The BAPC model projects 291.37 million (95% CI: 182.25-400.49) prevalent cases by 2040.

Conclusion: The global burden of HL in YAs is rising, particularly since the relative risk of HL has continued to grow during the last 10 years, highlighting the need for further research and intervention.

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15-39岁年轻人听力损失流行的全球时间趋势和2040年的预测。

背景：听力损失（HL）对健康和社会福利构成重大危害，但缺乏15-39岁年轻人（YAs）听力损失负担的数据。本研究旨在描述全球时间趋势并预测未来年轻人听力损失负担。方法：使用2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据，按年龄、性别和社会人口指数（SDI）分析青少年中HL的流行病例和年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）。年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型用于评估趋势，而贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测未来的流行病学轨迹。结果：在全球范围内，HL流行病例从1992年的17177万例（95% CI: 145.95-200.16）增加到2021年的25616万例（95% CI: 222.49-293.87）。在此期间，ASPR从每10万人中的7862.80人上升到8474.66人，男性的比率一直高于女性。APC分析显示，近年来（2012-2021年）听力损失风险的年龄依赖性增加，不利的时期影响，以及1997-2006年出生队列的相对风险峰值。BAPC模型预测到2040年将有2.9137亿例（95% CI: 182.25-400.49）流行病例。结论：青少年患HL的全球负担正在上升，特别是在过去10年中HL的相对风险持续增长，这突出了进一步研究和干预的必要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Iranian Journal of Public Health 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

2.20

自引率

7.10%

发文量

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Iranian Journal of Public Health has been continuously published since 1971, as the only Journal in all health domains, with wide distribution (including WHO in Geneva and Cairo) in two languages (English and Persian). From 2001 issue, the Journal is published only in English language. During the last 41 years more than 2000 scientific research papers, results of health activities, surveys and services, have been published in this Journal. To meet the increasing demand of respected researchers, as of January 2012, the Journal is published monthly. I wish this will assist to promote the level of global knowledge. The main topics that the Journal would welcome are: Bioethics, Disaster and Health, Entomology, Epidemiology, Health and Environment, Health Economics, Health Services, Immunology, Medical Genetics, Mental Health, Microbiology, Nutrition and Food Safety, Occupational Health, Oral Health. We would be very delighted to receive your Original papers, Review Articles, Short communications, Case reports and Scientific Letters to the Editor on the above mentioned research areas.