Integrating oceanographic and human-related drivers to explain spatial and temporal patterns of bottlenose dolphin strandings over the last three decades in the Mexican Caribbean

Abstract

Marine mammal strandings provide valuable insights into ecosystem health, species ecology, and anthropogenic pressures in coastal ecosystems. To understand what factors are influencing the spatial distribution of stranding events, we integrated long-term stranding data (1993–2024) of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) along the Quintana Roo coast, Mexican Caribbean, with biological characteristics, spatial patterns, oceanographic forcing, and human accessibility. To assess mortality patterns, we modeled onshore stranding probability using wind dynamics, surface currents, and anthropogenic accessibility. Generalized Additive Models identify persistent easterly and southeasterly winds as the dominant drivers of carcass transport, while current direction exerted a weaker influence. Stranded dolphins (51) were analyzed, with cases peaking in Rainy/Hurricane Season (June–November). The spatial distribution was uneven, showing hotspots at the South Zone and North Zone 1, with the South Zone concentrating more than 75% of the events. Sample recovery and necropsies were conducted in 41.2% of cases, and causes of death were determined in 25%, highlighting logistical and institutional limitations. The probability of detecting strandings onshore was influenced by accessibility, revealing a detection bias linked to coastal access and human population density. The final model explained 95.7% of deviance and showed high predictive performance (AUC = 0.9989). Results indicate stranding hotspots emerging from interaction between wind-driven drift processes and human detection capacity, rather than localized mortality isolated. Incorporating oceanographic and anthropogenic layers into stranding analyses is essential for improving ecological inference, correcting reporting biases, and strengthening evidence-based coastal management and marine mammal conservation strategies in rapidly developing regions.