Local management can offset climate-driven increases in marine habitat risks

Abstract

Habitat risk assessment is a valuable tool for identifying vulnerable areas and habitats that require enhanced protection. Climate change and human activities pose significant threats to environments, and their interaction may further amplify these impacts. This study explored how global warming, varying levels and types of human activities, and their combined effects would influence habitat risks in a marine ecosystem. More importantly, it investigated whether localized conservation measures could mitigate habitat risks under ongoing global warming. Using the South Penghu Marine National Park in Taiwan as a case study, habitat risk assessments were conducted under current condition and three future scenarios considering conservation management and projected warming. The results indicated that habitat risks increased slightly under the Global Warming scenario. However, strengthening the management of existing human activities, particularly fisheries, could substantially reduce overall habitat risks to 38% under current condition and to 50% under the Global Warming scenario. Although the spatial distribution of habitat risks varied among scenarios, coral reefs in general exhibited the highest risks, while both commercial and IUU fishing were identified as the primary drivers. Overall, our findings suggest that improved management of human activities can significantly mitigate habitat risks, exerting greater influences on risk reduction than the pressures imposed by global warming. In situations where global warming cannot be effectively halted in the short term, strengthening regulation of human activities may provide critical relief for ecosystems facing persistent environmental stress.