Regional Inequities in Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatotic Liver Disease Burden and Care Quality in High-burden Settings: Implications for Health Systems.

Abstract

Background and aims: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is increasing rapidly, yet regional differences in burden and care quality remain unclear. This study aimed to compare regional incidence, mortality, and disability; evaluate care quality; identify key determinants; and project future incidence.

Methods: We analyzed the Global Burden of Disease 2023 estimates of MASLD incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2023 by age, sex, country, and region. Age-standardized rates were assessed using joinpoint regression. A composite Quality of Care Index (QCI) was derived through principal component analysis. Gradient boosting models with SHapley Additive exPlanations interpretation identified key predictors, and Bayesian age-period-cohort models generated incidence projections.

Results: In 2023, South and East Asia had the largest numbers of new cases, while North Africa and the Middle East and Andean Latin America recorded the highest age-standardized incidence, mortality, and disability rates. Eastern Europe and Andean Latin America showed sustained increases in mortality and disability despite moderate incidence growth. QCI values were lowest in South Asia, Western Sub-Saharan Africa, and Eastern Europe. High body mass index and fasting plasma glucose were prominent contributors in comparative risk attribution analyses, and machine learning models identified age and calendar year as the strongest predictors of modeled burden patterns. Incidence is projected to continue increasing through 2050, particularly in India and China.

Conclusions: MASLD burden and care quality vary widely across regions. Low-QCI regions show higher mortality and disability, unfavorable metabolic risk profiles, and delayed detection patterns. Strengthening prevention, early case finding, fibrosis assessment, and treatment access may slow MASLD progression.