COVID-19 disrupted patterns of cause-specific mortality in Switzerland.

IF 3.2 3区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

International Journal of Public Health Pub Date : 2026-06-23 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI:10.3389/ijph.2026.1609856

Anthony Hauser, Moritz Wagner, Anna Fesser, Karim Abawi, Anne Laube, Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, Julien Riou

{"title":"COVID-19 disrupted patterns of cause-specific mortality in Switzerland.","authors":"Anthony Hauser, Moritz Wagner, Anna Fesser, Karim Abawi, Anne Laube, Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, Julien Riou","doi":"10.3389/ijph.2026.1609856","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Objectives: To understand disruptions in mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic beyond deaths directly attributed to SARS-CoV-2.Methods: We analysed Swiss weekly deaths (2011-2021) by age, sex, region, and nine cause groups. For each age group, a Bayesian multivariate Poisson model was fitted to 2011-2019 data, accounting for seasonality, long-term trends, and cross-cause dependence. Comparing predictions with 2020-2021 observations revealed age- and cause-specific excesses.Results: Cardiovascular deaths peaked during the autumn 2020 wave, while no cause showed sustained excess across 2020-2021. In individuals aged ≥80 years, non-COVID respiratory (-25%) and mental/neurological (-12%) deaths declined, largely offset by COVID-19 deaths, leaving a modest +4.5% all-cause excess. Cardiovascular and mental/neurological excesses correlated with COVID-19 and other respiratory excesses, reflecting strong pre-pandemic cross-cause correlations ( <math><mrow><mi>ρ</mi> <mo>></mo> <mn>0.80</mn></mrow> </math> ).Conclusion: These patterns likely reflect three overlapping mechanisms: reduced circulation of non-COVID-19 respiratory pathogens, unrecognized COVID-19 deaths (especially cardiovascular), and mortality displacement, pointing to possible underestimation of the true respiratory burden.","PeriodicalId":14322,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Public Health","volume":"71 ","pages":"1609856"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2000,"publicationDate":"2026-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13338603/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Public Health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2026.1609856","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2026/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives: To understand disruptions in mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic beyond deaths directly attributed to SARS-CoV-2.

Methods: We analysed Swiss weekly deaths (2011-2021) by age, sex, region, and nine cause groups. For each age group, a Bayesian multivariate Poisson model was fitted to 2011-2019 data, accounting for seasonality, long-term trends, and cross-cause dependence. Comparing predictions with 2020-2021 observations revealed age- and cause-specific excesses.

Results: Cardiovascular deaths peaked during the autumn 2020 wave, while no cause showed sustained excess across 2020-2021. In individuals aged ≥80 years, non-COVID respiratory (-25%) and mental/neurological (-12%) deaths declined, largely offset by COVID-19 deaths, leaving a modest +4.5% all-cause excess. Cardiovascular and mental/neurological excesses correlated with COVID-19 and other respiratory excesses, reflecting strong pre-pandemic cross-cause correlations ( $ρ > 0.80$ ).

Conclusion: These patterns likely reflect three overlapping mechanisms: reduced circulation of non-COVID-19 respiratory pathogens, unrecognized COVID-19 deaths (especially cardiovascular), and mortality displacement, pointing to possible underestimation of the true respiratory burden.

查看原文本刊更多论文

COVID-19打破了瑞士特定原因死亡率的模式。

目的：了解COVID-19大流行期间死亡模式的中断，而不是直接归因于SARS-CoV-2的死亡。方法：我们按年龄、性别、地区和9个原因组分析瑞士每周死亡人数（2011-2021年）。对于每个年龄组，考虑到季节性、长期趋势和交叉原因依赖性，对2011-2019年的数据进行了贝叶斯多元泊松模型拟合。将预测与2020-2021年的观测结果进行比较，揭示了年龄和特定原因造成的过度现象。结果：心血管死亡在2020年秋季达到高峰，而在2020-2021年期间没有原因显示持续增加。在年龄≥80岁的个体中，非COVID-19呼吸道（-25%）和精神/神经系统（-12%）死亡率下降，在很大程度上被COVID-19死亡所抵消，留下4.5%的全因死亡率。心血管和精神/神经过度与COVID-19和其他呼吸过度相关，反映出大流行前很强的交叉原因相关性（ρ > 0.80）。结论：这些模式可能反映了三种重叠的机制：非COVID-19呼吸道病原体循环减少、未被识别的COVID-19死亡（特别是心血管疾病）和死亡率转移，这表明可能低估了真正的呼吸道负担。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

International Journal of Public Health 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

2.20%

发文量

269

审稿时长

12 months

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Public Health publishes scientific articles relevant to global public health, from different countries and cultures, and assembles them into issues that raise awareness and understanding of public health problems and solutions. The Journal welcomes submissions of original research, critical and relevant reviews, methodological papers and manuscripts that emphasize theoretical content. IJPH sometimes publishes commentaries and opinions. Special issues highlight key areas of current research. The Editorial Board''s mission is to provide a thoughtful forum for contemporary issues and challenges in global public health research and practice.