Global and regional burden of cardiovascular diseases due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2045: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on GBD 2021.

Abstract

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to represent a major public health concern, and low physical activity is identified as a key contributing risk factor. This study estimated the global burden and trends of CVD attributable to low physical activity over the past 32 years and projected them to 2045. This study analyzed trends in the burden of CVD attributable to low physical activity using the 2021 Global Burden of Disease data. The age-period-cohort model was employed to investigate the impacts of age, time periods, and birth cohorts on the CVD burden, while temporal trends were analyzed using joinpoint regression analysis. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model (BAPC) is used to predict the burden of CVD attributable to low physical activity from 2022 to 2045. Despite an increase in the global number of CVD deaths and DALYs attributable to low physical activity, both the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) have significantly declined. The projections for 2045 and the age-period-cohort model indicate substantial progress in reducing CVD mortality and DALYs, but the total number of CVD deaths and DALYs continues to increase. The study results suggest that although the global burden of CVD attributable to low physical activity has increased in absolute numbers, the age-standardized rates show a downward trend. It is crucial to develop targeted preventive strategies aimed at reducing the burden of CVD attributable to low physical activity, particularly among the elderly and in regions with limited healthcare resources.