Evaluation of the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles for decarbonizing road transport in the UAE

Abstract

Background

The transport sector in the United Arab Emirates is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions due to its high reliance on conventional fossil-fuel-powered vehicles. With the national commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, there is a pressing need to evaluate the potential of alternative technologies such as electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In this study, a system dynamics model is used to forecast vehicle adoption and associated emissions under four future policy pathways.

Results

In the reference pathway, where only conventional vehicles remain dominant, annual carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise to 54 million tons by 2050. The introduction of electric vehicles moderately reduces emissions, resulting in a decrease of up to 18 million tons compared to the reference case. As the electricity supply becomes progressively decarbonized, further reductions are achieved, resulting in emissions of 34 million tons by mid-century. The most ambitious pathway combines the large-scale deployment of electric vehicles with that of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, supported by a cleaner electricity grid. By 2050, it is anticipated that electric vehicles will account for half of the market, while fuel cell vehicles will make up 17%. This combined strategy has resulted in a significant reduction in annual emissions, with a decrease of 27 million tons, and a substantial decrease in gasoline demand, by more than 60%. Furthermore, the strategy has led to the creation of a new electricity demand, amounting to 10.7 TWh per year, and a hydrogen demand, reaching 0.11 million tons per year.

Conclusions

The findings show that achieving substantial emission reductions in the United Arab Emirates transport sector requires a combined approach that encompasses the accelerated adoption of electric and hydrogen-based vehicles, while concurrently decarbonizing electricity generation and hydrogen production. Early policy action, investment in charging and refueling infrastructure, and technological readiness are essential to align transport transformation with the national net-zero target.