Prediction Factors Associated with Success in Military Special Operations Courses: A Systematic Review.

Abstract

Background: We investigated factors associated with military personnel success in Special Operations courses (course pass or fail).

Methods: A systematic search was conducted across eight databases using the keywords "Special Operations" and "attrition." Sample size and profile data, course characteristics, predictive factors, follow-up, and results were extracted from the studies. We compared the means of the variables associated with success between the groups that completed and did not complete the courses. A meta-analysis was conducted for factors assessed by two or more studies, pooling standardized or weighted mean differences using fixedor random-effects models.

Results: A total of 23 studies were included. They were published between 1990 and 2022, included samples from 10 nations, lasted between 5 days and 12 months, and ranged from 11 to 1,138 individuals. VO2max, pull-ups, push-ups, and marching performance showed consistent positive associations with course success, while body fat percentage and sit-up performance did not. Certainty of evidence was rated as low to very low using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation.

Conclusion: The factors that increased the probability of success in Special Operations courses were character strengths, recidivism in the course, anthropometric data, performance on physical assessment tests, psychological dissociation, psychosocial resources, blood markers, smoking/alcohol consumption, personality, and psychological strength. These findings support the inclusion of aerobic capacity, muscular endurance, and psychological resilience in early screening and preparatory selection processes.