Tipping points in climate-driven variables of ecosystem resilience across Africa's Niger River Basin

IF 4.9 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Remote Sensing Applications-Society and Environment Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-12 DOI:10.1016/j.rsase.2026.102065

Chukwuka Ogbue , Xinwen Xu , Emeka Igboeli , Yongdong Wang , Ibrahim Yahaya , Chukwuemeka Nnoli , Alphonse Kayiranga , Yeneayehu Fenetahun , Chukwuedozie Ajaero , Yuan You

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Abstract

Vegetation resilience to climate stress is a critical determinant of ecosystem stability, particularly in hydroclimatically variable regions. This study assesses vegetation resilience across the Niger River Basin using a multi-indicator framework grounded in critical slowing down theory. Satellite-derived NDVI, EVI, and CASA-based NPP (2000–2024) were analyzed to quantify resilience via lag-1 autocorrelation (AC1) and recovery rates derived from detrended and deseasonalized time series. Results reveal consistent early-warning signals of resilience loss under increasing hydroclimatic stress, with rising AC1 and declining recovery rates along gradients of aridity, rainfall variability, and vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Nonlinear responses indicate potential resilience thresholds, with functional dynamics (NPP) responding earlier (≈1.0–1.19 aridity; ≈1.39–1.50 kPa VPD) than structural indicators (NDVI/EVI: ≈1.25–1.30; ≈1.50–1.57 kPa). Land-cover analysis shows heterogeneous responses, with forests exhibiting high baseline resilience but sharp declines near thresholds, while grasslands and shrublands show gradual, stress-adapted dynamics. These findings highlight the importance of integrating structural and functional indicators for early detection of ecosystem degradation. The identified threshold ranges provide a basis for targeted monitoring and climate adaptation strategies in vulnerable transition zones, supporting the development of early warning systems in data-scarce regions.

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非洲尼日尔河流域生态系统恢复力的气候驱动变量的临界点

植被对气候胁迫的恢复能力是生态系统稳定性的关键决定因素，特别是在水文气候变化地区。本研究使用基于临界减速理论的多指标框架评估了尼日尔河流域的植被恢复能力。分析了卫星衍生的NDVI、EVI和基于casa的NPP(2000-2024)，通过滞后-1自相关（AC1）和非趋势和非季节性时间序列衍生的恢复率来量化弹性。结果表明，在不断增加的水文气候胁迫下，恢复力损失的预警信号是一致的，沿干旱、降雨变率和蒸汽压差（VPD）梯度，AC1上升，恢复率下降。非线性响应表明了潜在的弹性阈值，其中功能动力学（NPP）的响应早于结构指标（NDVI/EVI:≈1.25-1.30;≈1.50-1.57 kPa）（≈1.0-1.19 kPa VPD）。土地覆盖分析显示出异质性响应，森林表现出较高的基线恢复力，但在接近阈值时急剧下降，而草原和灌丛表现出逐渐的、适应压力的动态。这些发现突出了综合结构和功能指标对早期发现生态系统退化的重要性。确定的阈值范围为脆弱的过渡区提供了有针对性的监测和气候适应战略的基础，支持了数据稀缺地区早期预警系统的发展。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Remote Sensing Applications-Society and Environment Multiple-

CiteScore

8.00

自引率

8.50%

发文量

204

审稿时长

65 days

期刊介绍： The journal ''Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment'' (RSASE) focuses on remote sensing studies that address specific topics with an emphasis on environmental and societal issues - regional / local studies with global significance. Subjects are encouraged to have an interdisciplinary approach and include, but are not limited by: " -Global and climate change studies addressing the impact of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, CO2 emission, carbon balance and carbon mitigation, energy system on social and environmental systems -Ecological and environmental issues including biodiversity, ecosystem dynamics, land degradation, atmospheric and water pollution, urban footprint, ecosystem management and natural hazards (e.g. earthquakes, typhoons, floods, landslides) -Natural resource studies including land-use in general, biomass estimation, forests, agricultural land, plantation, soils, coral reefs, wetland and water resources -Agriculture, food production systems and food security outcomes -Socio-economic issues including urban systems, urban growth, public health, epidemics, land-use transition and land use conflicts -Oceanography and coastal zone studies, including sea level rise projections, coastlines changes and the ocean-land interface -Regional challenges for remote sensing application techniques, monitoring and analysis, such as cloud screening and atmospheric correction for tropical regions -Interdisciplinary studies combining remote sensing, household survey data, field measurements and models to address environmental, societal and sustainability issues -Quantitative and qualitative analysis that documents the impact of using remote sensing studies in social, political, environmental or economic systems