Assessing flood vulnerability in the Upper Jhelum Basin using a geospatial modelling approach

Abstract

This study employs a knowledge-based geospatial modelling technique to conduct a comprehensive flood vulnerability assessment of the Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB), in the Kashmir Himalaya, India. This study evaluates the interplay of watershed characteristics on runoff potential at a watershed scale and integrates a number of physical and socio-economic factors including geomorphology, land use, land cover, topography, soil, census, and field observations from the 2014 floods, to ascertain the overall flood vulnerability of the basin. The Lidder watershed, emerges as the primary source of excess runoff, while the Bringi, Sandran, and Vishav watersheds, contribute to a lesser extent, and the Kuthar watershed produces very minimal excess runoff at the outlet near Sangam. This study combines social vulnerability with the watersheds’ excess-runoff potential to assess flood risk in the five watersheds of UJB. The Vishav watershed emerges as highly vulnerable, supported by floodwater inundation data from 2014, showcasing the effectiveness of the novel approach used. Approximately, 5% of the UJB, affecting ∼300,000 inhabitants, is covered by floodplains. The insights generated from this study are poised to guide policymaking for improved flood control and risk reduction strategies in the UJB, particularly in the face of climate change and socio-economic transformations.