Operational monitoring windows from cumulative rainfall to chlorophyll-a in subtropical reservoirs

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Pub Date : 2026-05-09 DOI:10.1007/s10661-026-15418-7

Jingxin Wei, Peiliang Chen, Xingcheng Fu, Jie Ling, Bingqing Xiao, Xuedong Xie, Bozhu Huang, Jingyi Cen, Songhui Lu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Extreme rainfall reshapes the underwater light field and nutrient regime, complicating the predictability of algal risk. We sampled 20 subtropical drinking-water reservoirs in Guangdong, China, in June and September 2024 and used a data-driven search to identify month-specific antecedent rainfall windows. The optimal antecedent windows showed strong seasonality, spanning 30 d in June but only 6 d in September, with contrasting cumulative rainfall thresholds (k = 26 d in June and k = 48 d in September). Then, we used piecewise SEM to disentangle the pathways of light attenuation coefficient (Kd) and nutrients (DIN, TP) influencing size-fractionated chlorophyll-a. Under the late-season window, rainfall consistently elevates turbidity and redistributes nutrients, yielding robust increases in pico/nano chlorophyll while effects on > 20 μm remain weak—together providing an actionable 7–8-week lead time. Building on these patterns, we outline a joint monitoring bundle—windowed rainfall, Kd, and TN/TP—and convert windows into practical rules for sampling frequency and station placement in storm-prone reservoirs. The framework reduces window-selection bias and is readily transferable to operational early warning.

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从累积降雨量到亚热带水库叶绿素-a的业务监测窗口

极端降雨改变了水下光场和营养状况，使藻类风险的可预测性复杂化。我们于2024年6月和9月对中国广东的20个亚热带饮用水水库进行了采样，并使用数据驱动搜索来确定特定月份的先前降雨窗口。最优先行窗具有较强的季节性，6月为30 d， 9月为6 d，累积雨量阈值（6月为26 d， 9月为48 d）差异较大。然后，我们利用分段扫描电镜分析了光衰减系数（Kd）和营养物质（DIN， TP）对叶绿素-a大小分异的影响途径。在季末窗口下，降雨持续提高浑浊度并重新分配营养物质，产生微/纳米叶绿素的强劲增长，而对20 μm的影响仍然很弱-共同提供了可操作的7 - 8周交货时间。在这些模式的基础上，我们概述了一种联合监测捆绑窗口降雨、Kd和TN/ tp，并将窗口转换为在易受风暴影响的水库中采样频率和站点放置的实用规则。该框架减少了窗口选择偏差，并易于转移到业务早期预警。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

4.70

自引率

6.70%

发文量

1000

审稿时长

7.3 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Monitoring and Assessment emphasizes technical developments and data arising from environmental monitoring and assessment, the use of scientific principles in the design of monitoring systems at the local, regional and global scales, and the use of monitoring data in assessing the consequences of natural resource management actions and pollution risks to man and the environment.